Great Oregon Poll

ARG has a new poll of Oregon voters showing Kerry beating Bush 50% to 42%, with Nader drawing 4%.  In a two-man race, Kerry wins 50% to 43%.  The poll was conducted July 19-22 and has a 4% margin of error.

Some other tidbits from the poll:

* Of Democrats polled, Kerry is favored 85% to 8%.
Of Republicans polled, Bush is favored 80% to 11%.  Thus, Kerry's intensity of support among those in his party is +77%, 8 points better than bush's +69%.
* Bush's fav/unfav rating is -2 (46% to 48%), whereas Kerry's is +18 (53% to 35%).  Kerry's winning the favorability category by 20 points!

Oregon has seemed to me one of the most worrisome of the battleground states that went to Gore.  I hope we continue to see Kerry's lead growing in subsequent polls.  And I hope the same happens soon in Wisconsin!  By September, I want to hear the Bill Schneiders of the media pointing out that, in all of the states Gore won in 2000, Kerry leads by at least 5% in current polls.